Money

Survey shows gloom continues

The Knight Frank/Markit’s February House Price Sentiment Index (HPSI) shows that house price decline continued throughout February.

Around six per cent of households believed that the value of their home had risen since January, while around 20 per cent reported a fall.

The resulting HPSI figure of 43.1 is down from 43.2 in January and 43.3 in December.

Any figure under 50 indicates that prices are falling, and the lower the figure, the steeper the decline. Any figure over 50 indicates that prices are rising.

Property values were perceived to have fallen in all 11 UK regions this month, according to the survey of 1,500 households.

However the south east – which includes Kent – was less badly affected than most other areas, with Wales and Humberside seeing the biggest falls.

A lead indicator

Gráinne Gilmore, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, said: “The outlook

among households for property prices over the next 12 months varies on a regional basis, emphasising the multi-speed housing market. Yet the overall outlook is muted, reflecting the economic travails of the UK and the Eurozone which are sapping confidence in many parts of the UK.

“The current and upcoming public sector spending cuts seem to be taking their toll on workers in the sector, who remain much more downbeat about future house prices than their counterparts in the private sector.

“One bright spot for homeowners throughout the economic turbulence has been the record-low base rate. The fillip this has given to the household finances of many mortgage borrowers may signal why they are more upbeat about the future path of house prices than their fellow homeowners who own their home outright.”

Tim Moore, senior economist at Markit, said: “The latest survey points to subdued yet stable

house price sentiment in February. UK households are split evenly on whether they expect their

property value to rise or fall in the next 12 months.

“Continuing the trend seen in 2011, expectations of house price gains are concentrated in London and among those in the highest income group.

“By home status, mortgage holders are the most upbeat, with their property price forecasts the

strongest since September 2010. Meanwhile, public sector workers remain more likely to anticipate house price declines than those in the private sector. These twin trends in many ways capture the essence of the overall house price outlook, namely that low interest rates are keeping a floor under property values, while lingering concerns about job security and incomes are acting as a counterbalance on prices.”